风电塔筒结构多灾耦合效应与年失效风险研究

STUDY ON MULTI-HAZARD COUPLING EFFECT AND ON ANNUAL FAILURE RISK OF THE WIND TURBINE TOWER STRUCTURE

  • 摘要: 本文以单桩风电塔筒结构为研究对象,提出了基于性能的塔筒结构多灾耦合效应与失效风险评估方法,该方法集多灾危险性、结构风致疲劳及多灾失效概率于一体,文中将其定义为基于性能的多灾害工程,这是本文的主要贡献。首先,基于1970年—2017年实测数据,建立地震危险性模型、基于Copula理论的风速风向联合概率模型以及地震与风事件联合概率模型。其次,以NREL-5MW风电塔筒结构为例,开展考虑风向效应的风致结构疲劳损伤分析,研究发现风向对结构风致疲劳累积损伤存在显著影响,且在0°~150°风向区间,疲劳寿命小于结构的设计使用寿命。再次,针对地震和风单独及同时作用三种灾害场景,分别计算了结构响应达到不同极限状态的易损性;结果表明,风-震同时作用将显著放大结构响应,且其易损性并非单独灾害作用下的线性叠加。最后,通过对多灾危险性与结构易损性进行卷积积分计算结构年失效风险,研究发现:对于停止运行和长期停机极限状态,风荷载单独作用对年失效风险的贡献度约50%,风-震同时作用约占30%;而对于长期停机和倒塌极限状态,地震单独作用的贡献度超过60%。本文所提出基于性能的结构抗多灾耦合作用评估方法,可为风电塔筒结构的一致风险设计提供理论依据。

     

    Abstract: This study proposes a performance-informed method for assessing multi-hazard coupling effects of monopile-supported wind turbine towers. This methodology integrates multi-hazard hazard modeling, wind-induced structural fatigue, multi-hazard fragility and failure risk, which is defined as performance-based multi-hazard engineering representing the main contribution of this current study. First, based on measured data from 1970 to 2017, a seismic hazard model, a copula-based joint probability model of wind speed and direction, and a joint probability model of seismic and wind events are established. Second, taking the NREL-5MW wind turbine tower structure as an example, a wind-induced structural fatigue damage analysis considering wind direction effects is conducted. The study indicates that wind direction significantly affects the cumulative wind-induced fatigue damage of the structure, and that the fatigue life is less than the design service life of the structure under the wind direction ranging from 0° to 150°. Third, the structural fragility corresponding to different limit states is computed for three hazard scenarios of an individual earthquake, of an individual wind and a simultaneous wind and, of a seismic action. The numerical results indicate that simultaneous wind and seismic action significantly amplifies structural responses, and that the associated fragility is not a simple superposition of individual hazards. Finally, the annual failure risk is computed by convolving the multi-hazard hazard with structural fragility. The study finds that for the damage states of shutdown and long-term shutdown, the contribution of wind load alone to the annual failure risk is approximately 50%, while that the simultaneous action of wind and earthquake accounts for about 30%. For the damage states of long-term shutdown and collapse, the contribution of seismic action alone exceeds 60%. The performance-informed multi-hazard evaluation methodology presented can provide a theoretical basis for the uniform-risk multi-hazard design of wind turbine tower structures.

     

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